Few purchases drop in price the moment you walk out of the store as reliably as a watch. But not all watches depreciate equally. The brands that hold value best—Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—often sell for more on the secondary market than their retail prices. The most common failure buyers hit is assuming that “expensive” equals “good investment.” A $5,000 watch from a fashion brand can lose 60–70% of its value within a year, while a $5,000 Tudor Black Bay typically loses only 10–20% over the same period. The key is knowing which brands and models have proven demand after the sale, and which are purely consumption.
A practical five-step depreciation check
Before you hand over any money, gather three things: the exact reference number, the watch’s current median pre-owned price on Chrono24 or WatchCharts, and a quick check of how many similar examples are listed unsold for more than 30 days. With those in hand, run through the following ordered actions. Each step is a natural checkpoint that tells you whether the watch you are eyeing is likely to hold value or drop hard.
Step 1: Compare secondary-market price to retail.
Search the exact reference on Chrono24 or WatchCharts. If the median asking price for a pre-owned example in good condition is below retail (or trending down month over month), expect continued depreciation. A premium above retail indicates strong demand, but be careful: premiums can collapse. Write down the current premium or discount percentage.
Step 2: Gauge liquidity – how many days to sell?
Check the same platform for how long recent listings have been active. Steel sports Rolex models often sell in 1–3 days. A Speedmaster Professional might take 5–14 days. Anything that sits unsold beyond 30 days on major platforms is a warning sign. High liquidity means you can exit quickly without slashing price. Low liquidity means you will likely take a 15–25% haircut to move it.
Branch point: If liquidity is low (unsold for 30+ days), your next action changes.
Do not buy at full retail. Instead, check completed sales – not asking prices. If the last three sold listings were 20–30% below the current asking price, the market is signaling that the watch is overpriced. Your safe move: walk away or negotiate to at least 20% below the current median price. If the seller won’t budge, the risk is yours alone.
Step 3: Verify the watch has original box, warranty card, and papers.
A complete set (box, papers, and purchase receipt) typically adds 15–20% to resale value. Buyers who discard these items or buy a “naked” watch erase a large chunk of potential recovery. If you are buying new, store everything. If buying pre-owned, pay only what the watch commands without papers — and expect to take that loss when you resell.
Step 4: Inspect condition and originality.
Replaced hands, polished cases, swapped bezels, or mismatched patina cut value by 30–50% for collectible models. For non-collectible luxury watches, heavy scratches or a missing service history still knock off 15–25%. If the seller cannot show an honest condition report, walk away.
Step 5: Look for consistent demand over the last 5–10 years, not just a recent spike.
Brands like Panerai and Hublot saw bubble-driven price peaks that later dropped 40–60%. Rolex, Patek, and AP have shown steady demand through multiple market cycles. Use histogram views on watch market sites to see if the model’s value held during downturns (e.g., 2022 correction). If the model’s price chart shows a single spike and a long flat tail, be wary.
Stop and escalate if: you cannot find transaction history for the exact reference (fewer than 10 closed sales in the past 12 months) or the brand’s secondary market is chaotic — wide price spreads, many unsold listings, no clear median price. In that case, you have no reliable data to base your decision on. Do not buy until you can find a comparable model with transparent history, or limit yourself to brands with deep, well-documented secondary markets (Rolex, Patek, Omega, Tudor, Cartier).
Which brands hold their value best? A side-by-side comparison
The table below shows average secondary-market performance for popular brands based on transaction data from the last three years. Percentages reflect the change from original retail price after five years of normal wear (not unworn or discontinued pieces).
| Brand | Typical 5-Year Value Retention | Liquidity (Days to Sell) | Key Models That Defy Depreciation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex (steel sports) | 100–120% | 1–3 days | Submariner, Daytona, GMT-Master II |
| Patek Philippe (steel Nautilus/Aquanaut) | 110–200% | 2–5 days | 5711, 5726, 5167 |
| Audemars Piguet (steel Royal Oak) | 90–100% | 3–7 days | 15400, 15202, 15500 |
| Omega (Speedmaster/Seamaster) | 75–85% | 5–14 days | Speedmaster Professional, Seamaster 300M |
| Tudor (Black Bay) | 80–90% | 5–10 days | Black Bay 58, Pelagos |
| Cartier (Tank/Santos) | 70–80% | 7–14 days | Tank Louis, Santos de Cartier medium |
| Grand Seiko | 60–75% | 10–21 days | SBGA211 Snowflake, SBGA413 Shunbun |
| IWC (Pilot/Mark) | 55–70% | 10–21 days | Mark XVIII, Spitfire models |
| Breitling (Navitimer) | 50–65% | 14–30 days | Navitimer 41mm steel |
| TAG Heuer (Carrera/Aquaracer) | 40–55% | 14–30 days | Carrera Heuer 02, Monaco |
Data compiled from Chrono24, WatchCharts, and major auction results. Trade-in offers to dealers will be 10–20 percentage points lower than private-party sale values.
The table highlights a key gap: brands with strong secondary demand (Rolex, Patek, AP) have high liquidity — you can sell a steel Submariner within a day. Brands like TAG Heuer or Breitling may take weeks, even at a discount. Liquidity matters because depreciation is only part of the cost; the time and effort to sell also eat into your net return.
Best-fit picks by use case
For someone buying a watch as a long-term store of value – Stick to steel sports models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, or Audemars Piguet. Avoid full diamond-set versions, two-tone, or complicated precious metal pieces unless you are buying extremely under retail. The safest entry: a Rolex Submariner ref. 126610LN at retail (if you can get it) or a pre-owned Patek Philippe Aquanaut ref. 5167A.
For a daily-wear that won’t lose sleep-inducing value – Omega Speedmaster Professional and Tudor Black Bay 58 are the sweet spot. Both lose roughly 15–25% over five years, but they are rugged, serviceable, and have strong enthusiast communities. Buy pre-owned from a trusted dealer to absorb the initial depreciation hit and you can break even or lose very little on resale.
For the entry-level buyer who wants minimal depreciation – The best strategy is to avoid new entry-level luxury watches entirely. A used Grand Seiko SBGA211 or a pre-owned Cartier Tank Must (quartz) both lose less than 10% per year after the first two years. Buying new at full retail in this tier usually means a 30–50% drop immediately.
For collectors chasing profit – Limited editions and discontinued references from Rolex, Patek, and AP have historically appreciated. Examples: Rolex “Kermit” Submariner, Patek 5711/1A-010, AP Royal Oak “Jumbo” 15202ST. But these are high-risk: you need to buy at retail (hard), hold for years, and hope the trend continues. Most limited editions do not appreciate; the ones that do are exceptions.
Trade-offs to know
The biggest hidden cost in watch depreciation is the “box and papers” penalty. A Rolex Submariner sold with its original box, warranty card, and papers can command 15–20% more than the same watch sold without them. Buyers who discard packaging or lose service history erase a large chunk of potential resale value. Always keep everything.
Another trap: overpaying for a popular model. When retail is impossible to find, some buyers pay 30–50% above MSRP to a grey-market dealer. If you pay a premium on a Rolex Daytona, you may still lose money if the market cools. The mid-2022 peak is a good example: premium prices dropped 20–30% by late 2023, leaving buyers who paid top dollar in negative equity.
Condition matters more than brand. A scratched-up Patek Nautilus can lose 30% of its value compared to a mint example. Service history and original parts also matter. Replaced hands, dials, or bezels often cut value in half for collectible watches.
Finally, the fashion effect is real. Brands like Hublot, Richard Mille, or Panerai have periods of high demand followed by steep declines. Panerai’s secondary values dropped 40–60% from their 2010 peak. Buyers who chased the hype got burned. The brands that hold value over decades are those with consistent demand, not temporary spikes.
Related questions
Is it possible to profit from buying watches?
Yes, but only a small fraction of models appreciate. Typically, you need to buy at retail from an authorized dealer, hold the watch for at least 5–10 years, and pick the right model (steel sports from Rolex, Patek, AP). Most people who “make money” on watches are selling after paying retail; the average enthusiast loses money.
Do James Bond–inspired watches hold value?
Not reliably. The Omega Seamaster Pro worn by Daniel Craig is a good example: while some limited edition Bond pieces spike briefly, the standard Seamaster Professional 300M loses 15–25% over five years. The “Bond effect” is short-lived and rarely translates into lasting value.
Should I buy a watch as an investment?
Only if you treat it as a passion investment, not a primary asset. Watches are illiquid, high-maintenance (servicing costs), and subject to fashion trends. A better approach: buy a watch you enjoy wearing, and if it holds value, consider that a bonus. The brands that hold value best are the ones with limited production, strong brand equity, and a proven secondary market — namely Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. For everyone else, depreciation is part of the cost of ownership.
The We Know Watches editorial team brings together over 40 years of combined watch collecting, trading, and repair experience. Our editors have owned and handled watches from every major brand — from entry-level Seiko 5s to Rolex, Omega, Patek Philippe, and independent Swiss watchmakers. We’ve bought and sold at auction, worked with authorized dealers, visited manufacturing facilities in Switzerland and Japan, and serviced hundreds of movements ranging from the Seiko 7S26 to the Longines L888. Every guide and review we publish is based on hands-on experience, original research, and consultation with professional watchmakers. We do not accept payment for reviews, and we clearly disclose when we use affiliate links.